Density distribution plots of observed climate indices for meteorological stations and gridded indices are also analysed, which indicate significant negative trends in the annual number of frost days and significant increasing trends in warm nights in the EH region over the 19602000 period. The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. Based on the MannKendall test (Zmk) results, the mean annual temperature revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in five stations (two stations at 5% significance level and three stations at 10% significance level). Social fencing is another mechanism that can be adopted in the region. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. Months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter months receive the reduced amount. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. This is particularly the case for the local community, whose economy is susceptible to variability and the erratic nature of rainfall and water shortage; recurrent drought is a common phenomenon. The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. This 2018 May 30;190(6):368. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018 . According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. 2005). Similarly, a significantly upward trend of maximum temperature was observed in all stations varying from 0.023 C/year and 4.00% in GIN station with a maximum value of 0.21 C/year and 37.60% in ENW station. Autumn and Spring rainfall regionsThe region comprises areas receiving rain following the influence of southeasterly winds. This holds true in both the highlands and lowlands. 2010; Simane et al. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. 2001; Kurukulasuriya & Mendelsohn 2008). 2009). Previous Topic. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. Water Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface Water, 4.4. ABSTRACT: Extreme precipitation exerts damaging impacts on both society and ecosystems. Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1 0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. According to a report made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry 2007; Pachauri et al. 2015). kiremit season (JuneSeptember), belg season (MarchMay), bega season (OctoberFebruary) and annually for all subdivisions, while the long-term trend of temperature was assessed for annual average, annual minimum and maximum temperature. The spatial distribution of temperature in Ethiopia is primarily determined by altitude andlatitude. The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. Back to Lesson. It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 %. Gridded rainfall and temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 and CRU . All crop production shows considerably high correlation with maximum temperature and stronger correlation with barley, while in the case of minimum temperature, poor correlation was observed for all crops. Here are the average temperatures. 2015; Wagesho & Yohannes 2016). In line with Rashid et al. The focus of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed in the western part of Ethiopia using a dense network of 4 4 km gridded data (558 points) reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite records which spatially covers the watershed. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. In administrative terms, it is located in Basona Worena District, in the North Showa zone of Amhara regional state (Figure1), situated 180 km northeast of the capital city, Addis Ababa. 2014; Mondal et al. The indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources. Therefore, in order to know the yields, annual rainfall is less important for prediction. However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. This statistical test is a popular and important tool in detecting the trend used by many other scholars for related applications (Hirsch et al. Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology. Following the directness of the Sun inMarch and September around the equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator. Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. The details of these seven stations are presented in Table2. The mean annual rainfall of the basin spatially varies from 417 to 1012 mm, with a noticeable temporal variation at a monthly time scale. For the kiremit (summer season), the main rainfall source is the northward oscillation of ITCZ and the development of high-pressure systems along the southern Atlantic as well as South Indian Oceans. Awareness creation: The communities in the watershed are dependent on the natural climate, therefore the availability of climatic information is a precondition to enable them to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climatic variability. The temporal variabilities of rainfall are characterized by;i. ; ed. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). Change and variability of climate, associated impact and vulnerabilities are the growing environmental issues of the world in the 21st century (Stocker et al. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. Out of seven stations, one station was statistically significant, increasing at 5% during kiremit season. 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). The impact of climate change is a global threat, and its effect is more pronounced in developing countries. Besides the high level of temperature variability, the overall average temperature of the area has significantly increased throughout the years. However, after 1999 and onwards, recovery in the long-term average rainfall emerged higher than the average mean, except for the drier conditions in 2002 and 2013 which were lower than the long-term mean. The available data for crop production (Q/ha) over 18 years (19972014) for the major crops such as barley, wheat, beans, peas, lentils and chickpeas were obtained from the district office of Agriculture and Central Statistical Authority. Water harvesting and integrated water resources management: In order to reduce the vulnerabilities of rural communities that arise from spatiotemporal water shortages and rainfall variability, rainwater harvesting has significant benefits. 2016). Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. A numerical experiment where the values of T dew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14 % in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4 % by the end of the century. Over the last three and a half decades, the total annual rainfall of the Beressa watershed has varied from 698.5 to 1,100 mm. (2014), it was concluded that a general tendency of increasing warm temperature, extreme variability and inconsistent precipitation trend was recorded in Ethiopia. During the years 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was recorded as being slightly above the mean. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. 2012; Meshesha et al. In contrast to the kiremit season, the five years' moving average annual rainfall of the bega season during the period 19802014 was highly variable. Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. 2013). Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. All year-round rainfall regionIt has many rainy days than any part of the country. Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. 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